Newcomb's Paradox

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William Newcomb dan Robert Nozick (1969): Kotak A transparan berisi $1.000. Kotak B tertutup berisi $1.000.000 jika prediktor memprediksi kamu ambil B saja, kosong jika memprediksi kamu ambil keduanya. Prediktor hampir selalu benar. Ambil satu kotak: ekspektasi ~$1.000.000. Ambil dua: ekspektasi ~$1.001.000 karena kotak sudah terisi sebelum pilihanmu.

Dua prinsip berbenturan: evidential decision theory (pilih yang berkorelasi dengan hasil terbaik → satu kotak) vs causal decision theory (pilih yang secara kausal menghasilkan yang terbaik → dua kotak, karena isi sudah ditentukan). Filsuf terbagi hampir merata. Paradoks ini adalah salah satu masalah filsafat keputusan yang paling diperdebatkan.

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Kumpulan Paradoks — Index Barbershop Paradox What the Tortoise Said to Achilles Catch-22 Drinker Paradox Paradox of Free Choice Paradox of Entailment Lottery Paradox Raven Paradox Ross' Paradox Temperature Paradox Unexpected Hanging Paradox Barber Paradox Bhartrhari's Paradox Berry Paradox Crocodile Dilemma Paradox of the Court Curry's Paradox Epimenides Paradox Grelling–Nelson Paradox Hilbert–Bernays Paradox I Know That I Know Nothing Kleene–Rosser Paradox Knower Paradox Liar Paradox Card Paradox No-no Paradox Pinocchio Paradox Quine's Paradox Yablo's Paradox Opposite Day Richard's Paradox Russell's Paradox Ship of Theseus Sorites Paradox All Horses Are the Same Color Ant on a Rubber Rope Cramer's Paradox Elevator Paradox Interesting Number Paradox Potato Paradox Burali-Forti Paradox Cantor's Paradox Abelson's Paradox Accuracy Paradox Berkson's Paradox Freedman's Paradox Friendship Paradox Inspection Paradox Lindley's Paradox Low Birth Weight Paradox Simpson's Paradox Will Rogers 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