Prisoner's Dilemma

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Dua tersangka ditahan terpisah. Jika keduanya diam: 1 tahun penjara masing-masing. Jika A mengkhianati B (B diam): A bebas, B 3 tahun. Jika keduanya mengkhianati: 2 tahun masing-masing. Strategi dominan secara individual: selalu mengkhianati. Namun hasilnya (2 tahun masing-masing) lebih buruk dari kerja sama (1 tahun masing-masing).

Ini adalah pondasi teori permainan dan menjelaskan ratusan fenomena: perlombaan senjata, tragedi milik bersama, kartel yang runtuh, doping olahraga, polusi industri. Solusi dalam pengulangan: strategi tit-for-tat (Robert Axelrod) — mulai dengan kerja sama, balas pengkhianatan, maafkan. Paradoks ini menunjukkan mengapa institusi dan kepercayaan diperlukan untuk mengatasi insentif individual yang merusak kolektif.

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